AVOID THE APOCALYPSE
Can civilizations survive the Great Filter
STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE
The Fermi Paradox asks why we don't see scientific evidence of extra-terrestrial life. There are many possible reasons that have been put forth. One group of reasons supposes that there is a step needed to become a stable interstellar species that is so very nearly impossible to achieve that no lifeforms have made it in 13 billion years.
Assuming humanity is not the first to get to our present-day technology level, this simulation tries to illustrate the challenges. Using crude models for civilization behaviour and disaster events, the question if a race can survive to become a stable interstellar species can be illustrated.
GROWTH


Civilizations are generated and start at roughly just before the agricultural period on earth.

Population grows by a random percentage each year. This percentage increases as technology improves.

Technology improves at a steady rate. Once it reaches 100,000, if the home planet has enough population, the civilization will build a planet colony. If they survive to a technology level of 2,000,000 and have sufficient population in the home system, then they will populate the next nearest star.

If a planet is nearing or exceeding it's maximum sustainable levels, then the planet's unrest level will rise.
DEATH


Civilizations will experience disasters throughout their growth. The disasters can have a small percentage impact or they could wipe out the civilization.

Most disasters are confined to a single planet, but some affect entire star systems or the whole civilization.

If enough people die in the disaster, then the technology level will drop and the civilization will need to relearn some of the skills they had.

BACKGROUND
FERMI PARADOX


Simply put, "Where is everyone?" At our current technological advancement rate, it is conceivable that we will colonize the planets in our star system within the next century, and probably the nearby star systems in the next, say, 5 centuries.

At that rate, it would take humans about 50 million years to populate most of the planets across the Milky Way galaxy. 50 million years is a blink of an eye compared to how long the universe has been around, so why hasn't any other race done it?
SCHOOLS OF THOUGHT


There are two groups of explanations. Either no one makes it to that level without being destroyed first (Great Filter), or lots of races have made it and we don't see them for some reason.
WaitByWhy has an enjoyable posting that very clearly explains the paradox and the suppositions put forth to explain the paradox.
GREAT FILTER


This simulation focuses on the Great Filter category starting with intelligent multi-cellular lifeforms. This overlooks half of the Great Filter's strainers.
ASSUMPTIONS
These simulations are only as good as their assumptions. Unfortunately, with a statistical sample size of 1 civilization, all of the assumptions are pure conjecture. The depth of the model also over-simplifies the interactions of influences at present.
POPULATION GROWTH RATES

Population grows at between -0.1 - 1% per year ignoring technology's influence. Technology can boost the rate to 5% at most. Early on, this is too low and later in the sim, it doesn't factor in social influences properly.
TECHNOLOGY GROWTH RATES

Technology is balled up into one value and it always grows at 0 - 1% per year ignoring population's influence. Population can boost to a maximum of 10% additional. Technology can't develop morethan 2000 points in a year.
UNREST GROWTH RATES

Unrest is set as a single value and increases on a single planet when the population on the planet approaches the maximum sustainable size. Unrest accelerates rapidly when the population exceeds the maximum sustainable number.
PLANETARY COLONIES

A civilization will populate a random planet in their system once there is enough population and high enough technology. Once started, the colony grows at it's own rate (there is no migration model). Planetary colonies can only be established once every 30 years.
INTERSTELLAR COLONIZATION

A civilization that has reached a certain level of technology and has a massive population base in their star will colonize the next closest star with 10,000 citizens. A star will be colonized around once a century until the nearest 40 stars are colonized.
NATURAL DISASTERS

A planet is an unforgiving place and can easily cause devastating impacts to civilizations. Natural disasters can be mitigated in probability and consequence as technology advances.
CIVILIZATION CAUSED DISASTERS

There is little dispute that a civilization can cause its own destruction. There are a number of possible ways that this can happen. Most of them get amplified in probability and consequence as technology improves. There currently is no social influence on these disasters.
RUN SIMULATION
Enough talk, let's run it already.
Number of Stars
1000
Maximum # of Civilizations
12
Disaster Probability Multiplier
1.00
START
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